By Jochen Gerber, Hanjo Arms, Mathias Wiecher, Christian Danner
What is the chance of your operations reaching the specified profitability? What function does flexibility play on your company plans? have you thought of its price in concrete phrases? having the ability to react to the unforeseen via taking a strategic switch after all can turn out to be the salvation of an organization and its leaders. Flexibility, hazard, likelihood and their interrelated worth are the foremost elements of Dynamic determination administration (DDM), a step forward method of validating your determination making method and making sure the specified results.
Using the DDM process, the well known and broadly authorised complicated equipment regarding state of affairs development develop into out of date. Why? simply because DDM does the unthinkable: It integrates the effect of uncertainty and entrepreneurial flexibility within the strategic choice making method and does so with precision.
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Extra info for Leveraging Flexibility: Win the Race with Dynamic Decision Management
Engineers are in the position to identify exactly what must be done to achieve a time advantage. Years ago, prior to the development of modern tools and technology, race track decisions were based on far less input. As a result the decisions lacked the accuracy and ﬂexibility practiced by today’s teams. But then, as now, the overall objective was not just to win a single race but to gain enough points throughout the season to become world champion. ØÌßÝÓØÏÝÝÖÓÐÏÓÞ˪ÝËÖÝÙË×ËʵÏÜÙÐÝÚÏÏÎËØÎÚÜÏÍÓÝÓÙØ˜ØÙÞÔßÝÞØÙáËØÎÞÒÏØÌßÞ ÙàÏÜÞÓ×Ï˛ËØËÑÏ×ÏØÞÎÏÍÓÝÓÙØ×ËÕÓØÑÓÝÝÙÍÒËÖÖÏØÑÓØÑÖËÜÑÏÖãÎßÏÞÙÞÒÏ×ßÖ̋ ÞÓÚÖÏÙÚÞÓÙØÝÞÒËÞÚÜÏÝÏØÞÞÒÏ×ÝÏÖàÏÝËÝÎÏÍÓÝÓÙØ×ËÕÏÜÝÝÏÏÕÞÙÍÜÏËÞÏËÝßÝÞËÓØ̋ ËÌÖÏÐßÞßÜÏ˛ÒÏÞÒÏÜËØÎáÒÏØÞÙÜÏÚÖËÍÏÙßÞÎËÞÏÎ×ËÍÒÓØÏÜã˜ËÍÛßÓÜÏËØÙÞÒÏÜ ÍÙ×ÚËØã˜ÓØÞÜÙÎßÍÏØÏáÝËÖÏÝÍÒËØØÏÖÝÙÜÎÓÝÚÙÝÏÙÐØÙØ̋ÝÞÜËÞÏÑÓÍÌßÝÓØÏÝÝßØÓÞÝ ËÜÏÔßÝÞËÐÏáÏâË×ÚÖÏÝÓÖÖßÝÞÜËÞÓØÑÞÒÏÎÏ×ËØÎÝÚÖËÍÏÎßÚÙØÞÙÎËã˪Ý×ËØËÑÏ×ÏØÞ ÞÏË×Ý˛ ØÞÒÓÝÍÙØØÏÍÞÓÙØ˜ÎÏÞÏÜ×ÓØÓØÑÞÒÏÚÜÏÍÓÝÏàËÖßÏÙÐËÎÏÍÓÝÓÙØÓØÐËàÙÜÙÐ ÞÒÓÝÙÜËÑËÓØÝÞÞÒËÞÓÝÙÐßÞ×ÙÝÞÓ×ÚÙÜÞËØÍÏ˛ÙÌÏÝßÜÏ˜ËáÜÙØÑÙÜÜÓÑÒÞÎÏÍÓÝÓÙØËÞ ÝßÍÒÔßØÍÞÓÙØÝÍËØ×ËÕÏËÖÖÞÒÏÎÓʥÏÜÏØÍÏÓØÞÒÏÐßÞßÜÏÝßÍÍÏÝÝÙÐËÍÙ×ÚËØãËØÎ ÞÒÏÚÏÙÚÖÏÞÒËÞÑÓàÏÓÞÖÓÐÏ˛ ˛ÏÜÌÏÜÏÞËÖ˛˜
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General economic changes like a ﬁnancial crisis or the decline of high impact companies also bear substantial risks. Even greater are the risks associated with inﬂation or long-term shifts in interest rates. Formidable risks are linked with all kinds of force majeure. Natural disasters may destroy or isolate entire sites which are critical for production or the supply chain; terrorist attacks or serious accidents can have similarly dramatic consequences. ØãÚÜÙÔÏÍÞÏØÞËÓÖÓØÑËÎÏÞËÓÖÏÎßØÍÏÜÞËÓØÞãËØËÖãÝÓÝÒËÝËÐËÜÌÏʵÏÜÍÒËØÍÏÙÐ ÎÏÖÓàÏÜÓØÑÝÞÜÙØÑÜÏÝßÖÞÝ˛ÓÞÒÙßÞÝßÍÒËØËØËÖãÝÓÝÌßÝÓØÏÝÝÝßÍÍÏÝÝÓÝÖËÜÑÏÖãË ×ËʵÏÜÙÐÖßÍÕ˛ CHAPTER 3: SOLVING THE MYSTERY OF UNCERTAINTY 37 Analyzing uncertainties ÏàÏÜËÖÎÏÍËÎÏÝËÑÙÞÒÏÌËÝÓÍÍÙ×ÌÓØËÞÓÙØÙÐÏâÚÏÜÓÏØÍÏËØÎÍÙ××ÙØÝÏØÝÏ ÚÜÙàÏÎÝßʩÍÓÏØÞ˛ßÍÍÏÝÝÐßÖÍÙ×ÚËØãÖÏËÎÏÜÝÞãÚÓÍËÖÖã×ËÎÏÝÚÏÍßÖËÞÓàÏÎÏÍÓ̋ ÝÓÙØÝËØÎÏØÎÏÎßÚÌÏÓØÑÍÙÜÜÏÍÞÓØÞÒÏ×ËÔÙÜÓÞãÙÐÍËÝÏÝ˛ßÞØÙáËÎËãÝÞÒÏÙʰÏØ ÎÜËÝÞÓÍʮßÍÞßËÞÓÙØÝÓØÏÍÙØÙ×ÓÏÝËØÎÌßÝÓØÏÝÝÍÙ×ÏáÓÞÒÑÜÏËÞÏÜÝÚÏÏÎËØÎ˜ÌÏ̋ ÓØÑßØÏâÚÏÍÞÏÎ˜ÝÞÓÖÖÝßÜÚÜÓÝÏßÝ˛ ÒÏÌÏʵÏÜË×ËØËÑÏ×ÏØÞÞÏË×ÓÝËÌÖÏÞÙßØÎÏÜÝÞËØÎÞÒÏßØÍÏÜÞËÓØÞÓÏÝÓØÒÏÜ̋ ÏØÞÓØÝÚÏÍÓʨÍÍËÝÒʮÙáÏÖÏ×ÏØÞÝ˜ÞÒÏÏËÝÓÏÜÓÞÓÝÞÙÏâÏÍßÞÏËÝÞÜËÞÏÑã˜×ËÕÓØÑË ÝÒÙÜÞÙÜ×ÓÎ̋ÞÏÜ×ÓØÍÜÏËÝÏÓØÍÙ×ÚËØãàËÖßÏËÜÏËÖÚÙÝÝÓÌÓÖÓÞã˛ØÍÏÜÞËÓØÞÓÏÝËÜÏ ÞãÚÓÍËÖÖãÎÓàÓÎÏÎÓØÞÙ˝ 1.
Have you already calculated the probability of achieving the targeted project return for your current project(s)? 3. Does the factual assessment of risk match your intuitive feeling? CHAPTER 3: SOLVING THE MYSTERY OF UNCERTAINTY 43 44 4. MAKING BULL’S-EYE DECISIONS IN VOLATILE SETTINGS Though luck plays a role in determining which team wins the race, there’s obviously more to it than that. Being the fastest driver does not automatically lead to a cork-popping award ceremony spiced by the ladies’ kisses.
Leveraging Flexibility: Win the Race with Dynamic Decision Management by Jochen Gerber, Hanjo Arms, Mathias Wiecher, Christian Danner