On studying some world history - download pdf or read online

By Chün Shih

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Understand that screening tests can make two errors: false positives and false negatives. The false-negative rate (miss rate) is the proportion of negative tests among clients with the condition. Understand how to translate specificities, sensitivities, and other conditional probabilities into natural frequencies. 3 illustrates how these can be translated into natural frequencies in order to facilitate deriving the positive predictive value. Understand that the goal of screening is not simply the early detection of disease; it is mortality reduction or improvement of quality of life.

Both yield a 50% relative risk reduction, yet they differ dramatically in clinical importance. , 2000; (e ) Smith, Wilson, & Henry, 2005; (f) Woloshin & Schwartz, 2006b. , “For every 100 people who take drug X, 10 fewer will have a heart attack over 10 years”). , “Drug X lowered the risk of heart attack by 10 in 100: from 20 in 100 to 10 in 100 over 10 years”). Harms are mentioned in only about one third of reports on newly approved medications, and they are rarely if ever quantified. A simple solution (again) is to present both benefits and harms in the same format—in absolute risks.

If a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability that she nevertheless tests positive is 9% (false-positive rate). What is the best answer? The probability that she has breast cancer is about 81%. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about 9 have breast cancer. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about 1 has breast cancer. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 1%. The number of physicians who found the best answer, as documented in medical studies, was slightly less than chance (21%).

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On studying some world history by Chün Shih

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