Dong Sun Lee's Power Shifts, Strategy and War: Declining States and PDF

By Dong Sun Lee

ISBN-10: 0203938216

ISBN-13: 9780203938218

ISBN-10: 0415773385

ISBN-13: 9780415773386

Marked adjustments within the stability of energy among states within the overseas process are quite often visible by way of IR students as one of the most typical explanations of struggle. This booklet explains why such energy shifts result in battle breaking out now and again, yet now not in others. not like current methods, this e-book argues that the army technique of declining states is the major determinant of even if energy shifts bring about battle or move peacefully. extra particularly, Dong sunlight Lee argues that the chance of conflict is essentially a functionality of whether a declining kingdom possesses a ‘manoeuvre technique’ or an ‘attrition strategy’. The argument is built in the course of the research of fourteen energy shifts between nice powers during the last centuries. Shifts within the stability of energy and the attendant dangers of struggle stay an everlasting function of foreign politics. This booklet argues that policymakers have to comprehend the standards influencing the chance of struggle due to those alterations, particularly the modern shifts in strength as a result of the increase of China and from the expansion of nuclear proliferation.

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Additional info for Power Shifts, Strategy and War: Declining States and International Conflict (Routledge Global Security Studies)

Example text

In the seventh section, I defend my arguments against two counterclaims. The final section summarizes major findings. Russian military strategy Russia had an attrition-based war plan between 1870 and 1890. 1 The plan compensated for these weaknesses by calling for spoiling cavalry raids The Russo-German rapprochement 39 early in an eventual conflict. 3 The entire Russian army would then fight a series of set-piece battles and destroy the invading armies. 4 In its entirety, the plan envisaged a protracted war in excess of six months if the Russians were to have any chance of success.

The answer is that states that have good intelligence capability and strategic acumen are likely to possess maneuver strategies, while those lacking these qualities tend to adopt attrition strategies. Good intelligence is an essential ingredient for maneuver strategies, because for their success the attacker must have accurate information on the opponents’ war plans while hiding its own intention and capability to exploit their vulnerabilities. Simply put, a maneuver strategy requires a marked advantage in strategic knowledge, which in turn depends crucially on superior capacity in key areas of intelligence operations including data collection, analysis, evaluation, counterintelligence, and deception.

Since international politics takes its course in the shadow of war, therefore, states care about decline in material power which is an important pillar of military capability. Although defensive realists argue that the decliner has little incentive for preventive war insofar as it will still remain able to defend itself against an attempted conquest by the riser,58 this proposition is questionable for two 26 A strategic theory of preventive war reasons. First, war can break out later for a variety of reasons that the declining state cannot readily manipulate.

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Power Shifts, Strategy and War: Declining States and International Conflict (Routledge Global Security Studies) by Dong Sun Lee


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