By Allan J. Lichtman
Do you think Mitt Romney’s “47%” remark brought on him to lose the 2012 presidential election? Or that Richard Nixon misplaced the 1960 presidential election simply because he sweated on television? perhaps John Kerry was once “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? re-examine! In Predicting the following President, political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman offers 13 historic components, or “keys” (four political, seven functionality, and personality), that confirm the end result of presidential elections. within the chronological, winning software of those keys to each election seeing that 1860, Lichtman dispels a lot of the secret at the back of electoral politics and demanding situations many conventional assumptions. An fundamental source for political junkies!
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Extra resources for Predicting the Next President
Although these and other factors may have some influence on the decisions of individual voters, none of them improves the ability of the keys to discriminate between winning and losing candidates, and the inclusion of several—ideology (centrism) and party identification, for example—diminishes the predictive power of the system. In picking winners and losers, the keys differ from conventional models that try to estimate each candidate’s share of the popular vote. Although there is a rough correlation between the number of keys turned against the party in power and its percentage of the popular vote, the final verdict depends only on the simple, unweighted total of negative keys (the use of weighted keys does not improve the ability of the system to distinguish between incumbent and challenging-party victories).
But such simple notions as “peace and prosperity” do not adequately measure an administration’s success or failure. The keys to the White House gauge the multiple dimensions of incumbent strength and performance that together identify the point at which the party in power crosses the line separating victory from defeat. Nothing either party has said or done during the fall campaign has ever changed its prospects at the polls. Debates, television appearances, fund-raising, advertising, news coverage, and campaign strategies—the usual grist for the punditry mills—count for virtually nothing on Election Day.
THIRTEEN KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE The keys to the White House are stated as conditions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the incumbent party loses. S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. KEY 2 Nomination contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. KEY 3 Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. KEY 4 Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Predicting the Next President by Allan J. Lichtman