By Michael Carter, Rodney Maddock
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Extra resources for Rational Expectations: Macroeconomics for the 1980s?
Through appropriate management of the tools of monetary and fiscal policy, the government can manipulate the level of aggregate demand in the economy. But the aggregate demand curve shows that there are an infinite number of possible combinations of aggregate demand and the price level which are consistent with equilibrium in the goods and money markets. To determine which combination of price and demand prevails for given aggregate demand schedule (for a given policy mix), we must consider the aggregate supply curve.
But they do provide money supply targets in their budget announcements, and provided the behaviour of the economy is reasonably predictable, it is hard to believe that this information will not be used by economic decision-makers. 1 We would like to pause and reflect for a moment on the preceding two paragraphs. In the first case, the price level is determined by a simple linear function of the money supply and every agent in the economy is assumed to know this relationship. The money supply in turn is determined by a fixed rule which is also known to all agents.
This information can be used in forming expectations about future values of economic variables. It is to this idea that we now turn. 5 Rational Expectations So far we have discussed three different expectations mechanisms - the naive cobweb assumption, extrapolative expectations and adaptive expectations. All three suffer from a common failing: they are essentially arbitrary, rather than based on any underlying theory of economic behaviour. Since the formation of expectations is an integral aspect of economic behaviour, cannot the tools of economics be applied to this aspect?
Rational Expectations: Macroeconomics for the 1980s? by Michael Carter, Rodney Maddock