Download e-book for kindle: Risk Analysis and Scientific Method: Methodological and by Kristin Shrader-Frechette

By Kristin Shrader-Frechette

ISBN-10: 902771844X

ISBN-13: 9789027718440

ISBN-10: 9400952414

ISBN-13: 9789400952416

Much of the paintings during this quantity used to be supported via the nationwide technology beginning below provide SES82-05112 from this system in historical past and Philosophy of technological know-how and the department of coverage study and research. (Any evaluations, findings, conclusions, or ideas expressed during this e-book are these of the writer and don't unavoidably replicate the perspectives of the nationwide technology starting place. ) numerous of those essays have been written end result of the impetus afforded by way of talking invites. An past model of bankruptcy three was once offered in Berkeley in January 1983 at a valuable Investi­ gators' convention backed by means of the nationwide technological know-how starting place, department of coverage study and research, expertise evaluate and probability evaluate team. In may well 1982, an previous model of bankruptcy five used to be awarded on the assembly of the Society for Philos­ ophy and know-how, held along with the yankee Philosophical organization assembly, Western department, in Columbus, Ohio. ultimately, past types of bankruptcy 6 have been awarded in Boston in December 1981 on the Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of technology, in addition to on the collage of Delaware in January 1982 and on the Biennial assembly of the Philosophy of technological know-how organization held in Philadelphia in October 1982. An past model of this comparable bankruptcy was once released in Philosophy of technology organization eighty two, quantity 1, ed. T. Nickles, Philosophy of technological know-how organization, East Lansing, Michigan, 1982. a few humans have helped to make this ebook greater than it may well have been.

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Extra info for Risk Analysis and Scientific Method: Methodological and Ethical Problems with Evaluating Societal Hazards

Example text

Practitioners of this method use the level of risk that has been tolerated in the past as a basis for evaluating the acceptability of present risks. Although they develop explicit calculations and specific decision rules in order to interpret historical risk levels, proponents of the RISK ASSESSMENT 35 method of revealed preferences do not believe that risk policies which have evolved without the benefit of careful quantitative analyses are incorrect or undesirable. For advocates of this method, historical policies may have prescriptive weight, even though they may neither have evolved, nor be justifiable, according to some formal, rational, decision rule.

1. The risk problem is defined by listing alternative courses of action and the set of all possible consequences associated with each action. 30 CHAPTER TWO 2. 3. 4. The assessor next describes the relationships among these alternatives and their consequences. Various mathematical, economic, and social models may be used in the descriptions in order to arrive at quantitative accounts of dose-response relationships, market behavior, and event probabilities. All the consequences of alternative risk decisions are evaluated in terms of a common unit.

Rather, they claim that risk decisions are made on the basis of intuition and 'know how', much as one learns to drive a car. Hence, they maintain that only use of intuition, subjectivity, or 'muddling through' intelligently will enable society to make decisions about acceptable risk. 26 For proponents of this object, any attempt to use a formal method of risk assessment merely obscures the difficult evaluative components of a situation. Moreover, since both ReBA and decision analysis have obvious deficiencies, they argue that neither is sufficient (whether alone or together) for evaluating risks, and that, at best, both are merely able to provide information which might did policymaking.

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Risk Analysis and Scientific Method: Methodological and Ethical Problems with Evaluating Societal Hazards by Kristin Shrader-Frechette


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