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By Donella H. Meadows

Какие-то ослы разместили в libgene под этим названием совершенно другую книгу. ("Пределы роста. 30 лет спустя"). Рад представить оригинальное издание 1972 года.

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The king's entire rice supply was exhausted long before he reached the sixty-fourth square. Exponential increase is deceptive because it generates immense numbers very quickly. A French riddle for children illustrates another aspect of exponential growth-the apparent suddenness with which it approaches a fixed limit. Suppose you own a pond on which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking off the other forms of life in the water.

SOURCE: US Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facti and Probltmi, 1970. d The number of years known global reserves will last with consumption growing exponentially at the average annual rate of growth. Calculated by the formula exponential index=ln ((r • s) 1) + r where r =average rate of growth from column 4 s =static index from column 3. • The number of years that five times known global reserves will last with consumption growing exponentially at the average annual rate of growth. Calculated from the above formula with 5s in place of s.

Also, of course, mortality even at a given age is not necessarily constant. If there were no deaths in a population, it would grow exponentially by the positive feedback loop of births, as shown below. If there were no births, the population would decline c 0 ::: ca "3 a. 0 a. time to zero because of the negative feedback loop of deaths, also as shown below. Since every real population experiences both c 0 ::: ca "3 a. 8. time 36 THE NATURE OF EXPONENTIAL GROWTH births and deaths, as well as varying fertility and mortality, the dynamic behavior of populations governed by these two interlocking feedback loops can become fairly complicated.

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The limits to growth by Donella H. Meadows


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