Get Trade Cycles: Theory and Evidence PDF

By Nicholas Rau (auth.)

ISBN-10: 0333152417

ISBN-13: 9780333152416

ISBN-10: 1349020516

ISBN-13: 9781349020515

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Additional resources for Trade Cycles: Theory and Evidence

Example text

This distinction raises serious methodological problems, whenever econometric models are used to test theories; more generally, it serves as a reminder that model-building is an 62 activity requiring the exercise ofjudgement, not just of deriving the correct conclusions from accepted 'laws' of economic theory and mathematical statistics. As a final general point, note that most econometric models have a dynamic structure that is 'bogus' rather than truly dynamic in the sense of Chapter 2; endogenous variables at a given time are jointly dependent.

10 the oscillations neither explode nor decay: the excess of peak income over equilibrium income remains constant, peak after peak. But this very special case with v exactly equal to one, is the onry case of Model C which exhibits such regular cyclical behaviour; if v were to fall ever so slightly below 1, the oscillations would die away, albeit slowly. There is clearly something unsatisfactory about this for the trade-cycle theorist, and we shall attempt to come to grips with this problem in the next chapter.

One aspect of the econometric approach to trade cycles which has not been treated here is the application of spectral analysis. This statistical technique (a simple account of which is given in Wonnacott and Wonnacott [50] pp. 477-92) searches for the inherent cyclical properties either of a series of observations or of a hypothetical random process. It may be used to analyse both observed economic time series and the probabilistic nature of the behaviour of endogenous variables of a model, as implied by given estimates of parameters and assumptions about the disturbances.

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Trade Cycles: Theory and Evidence by Nicholas Rau (auth.)


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